@article{7e1e8db8ed9343b08d1e4fabcfcaf93e,
title = "A modeling approach to derive baseline risk estimates for GRADE recommendations: Concepts, development, and results of its application to the American Society of Hematology 2019 guidelines on prevention of venous thromboembolism in surgical hospitalized patients",
author = "Morgano, {Gian Paolo} and Wojtek Wiercioch and Anderson, {David R.} and Bro{\.z}ek, {Jan L.} and Nancy Santesso and Feng Xie and Adam Cuker and Robby Nieuwlaat and Akl, {Elie A.} and Darzi, {Andrea J.} and Yepes-Nu{\~n}ez, {Juan Jos{\'e}} and Itziar Exteandia-Ikobaltzeta and Maryam Rahman and Anita Rajasekhar and Frederick Rogers and Tikkinen, {Kari A.O.} and Yates, {Adolph J.} and Philipp Dahm and Sch{\"u}nemann, {Holger J.}",
note = "Funding Information: Contribution: G.P.M. wrote the first draft of the manuscript and revised the manuscript based on authors{\textquoteright} suggestions; H.J.S. conceptualized the modeling approach and guided its development; W.W. and H.J.S contributed to drafting and critical revisions of the manuscript; D.R.A. and P.D. were the chair and vice-chair of the panel, led the panel meetings, facilitated the development of assumptions and the application of the model; J.L.B. N.S. and F.X. critically reviewed the model providing methodological input; G.P.M. and H.J.S. performed initial selection of the sources of baseline risk for all guideline questions for review by the chair and vice-chair of the panel; G.P.M. W.W. I.E.I, J.J.Y.N. lead the review of the evidence used to inform the guideline and calculated modeled estimates of baseline risk; A.D. and E.A. conducted the systematic searches for prognosis data and defined its selection criteria; D.A. P.D. M.R. A.R. K.A.O.T, F.R. and A.J.Y. were members of the panel and provided expert evidence for the development of assumptions. H.J.S. A.C. R.N. and W.W. verified that the methods described in this manuscript are consistent with what was used in the ASH 2019 guidelines on prevention of venous thromboembolism in surgical hospitalized patients. All of the authors revised the manuscript critically for important intellectual content and approved the final version submitted for publication. Gian Paolo Morgano: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing - Original Draft, Visualization, Project administration Wojtek Wiercioch: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Robby Nieuwlaat: Methodology, Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing, Project administration Philipp Dahm: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing David R. Anderson: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Jan L. Bro{\.z}ek: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Nancy Santesso: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Feng Xie: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Adam Cuker: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Elie A. Akl: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Andrea Darzi: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Juan Jos{\'e} Yepes-Nu{\~n}ez: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Itziar Exteandia-Ikobaltzeta: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Maryam Rahman: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Anita Rajasekhar: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Frederick Rogers: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Kari A. O. Tikkinen: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Adolph J. Yates: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Philipp Dahm: Investigation, Writing - Review & Editing Holger J. Sch{\"u}nemann: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Resources, Writing - Review & Editing, Supervision, Project administration, Funding acquisition. Not required. This study does not involve de novo patient data collection. No patient informed consent and Institutional Review Board approval have been sought. The Excel spreadsheet used to calculate modeled baseline risk from surrogate baseline risk estimates is available upon request. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Elsevier Inc.",
year = "2021",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.07.010",
language = "English",
volume = "140",
pages = "69--78",
journal = "Journal of Clinical Epidemiology",
issn = "0895-4356",
publisher = "Elsevier USA",
}